WASHINGTON, DC -- U.S. 2018/19 all rice supplies are raised 3.3 million cwt this month to 275.9 million as higher production more than offsets lower beginning stocks. The August 24 NASS Rice Stocks report indicated lower 2017/18 ending stocks than previously forecast thereby reducing 2018/19 beginning stocks by 5.4 million cwt. In the September Crop Production report, NASS increased the 2018/19 U.S. crop by 8.6 million cwt to 219.5 million on increased harvested acreage and yields. NASS incorporated FSA certified acreage data this month.
The average all rice yield increased 40 pounds to 7,563 pounds per acre with forecast yields higher in California, Louisiana, and Texas. Long grain production is raised by 5.8 million cwt and combined medium and short grain is increased by 2.8 million. Total projected domestic and residual usage is increased by 2 million cwt to 133 million on larger supplies. The all rice export forecast is unchanged at 98 million as a 1-million-cwt increase in long grain on more competitive prices is offset by an equivalent reduction in medium and short grain on lower expected exports to Turkey. All rice ending stocks are increased 1.3 million cwt to 44.9 million and are 53 percent higher than 2017/18. The projected 2018/19 all-rice season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.20 to $12.20 with reductions in all rice class prices.
Global 2018/19 rice supplies are increased to 632.8 million tons, primarily on higher production and beginning stocks for India. World production is fractionally lower as reductions in China and Bangladesh more than offset India’s increased production. Global consumption is increased by 600,000 tons to 488.4 million, led by India. World trade is raised to a record 49.5 million tons on higher India exports. Global ending stocks increase 800,000 tons to 144.4 million as higher projected stocks for India, Cote d’Ivoire, and Burma more than offset reduced stocks for China.
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