WASHINGTON, DC -- The 2016/17 U.S. rice crop is reduced 1.1 million cwt to 236 million on lower yields. The average yield forecast is lowered 37 pounds per acre to 7,532. A reduction in Arkansas is partially offset by increases in California, Mississippi, and Texas. The long-grain crop is reduced 900,000 cwt to 177 million but still the largest since the 2010/11 record. Medium- and short-grain production is lowered 300,000 cwt to 59 million. Total rice exports are down 3 million cwt to 112 million reflecting a slow export pace to date and increased international competition. Ending stocks are raised 1.9 million cwt to 61 million, the largest since 1985/86. The all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at a range of $10.20 to $11.20 per cwt.
Global rice supplies for 2016/17 are raised 4.5 million tons on higher beginning stocks and production. Production is increased 1.5 million tons to 483.3 million and remains record large. Thailand production for 2016/17 is raised 1.6 million tons on beneficial precipitation and good reservoir recharge for irrigation, which led to increased dry-season rice area. Egypt and Australia production are raised 600,000 tons and 200,000 tons, respectively. However, these increases are partially offset by a 500,000-ton reduction for Brazil and a 300,000-ton reduction for Sri Lanka. Global exports for 2016/17 are raised 300,000 tons and global consumption for 2016/17 is lowered 600,000 tons. With total supplies rising and total use declining, world ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to 120.7 million.
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