WASHINGTON, DC -- The outlook for U.S. rice in 2020/21 this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as lower production is only partially offset by increased beginning stocks and imports. The initial survey-based production forecast for the 2020/21 crop year reduced production from the previous forecast by 2.6 million cwt to 218.1 million, all on lower yields. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,600 pounds per acre, down 89 pounds from the prior forecast but up from last year’s 7,471 pounds. Long grain production is forecast at 159.1 million cwt and combined medium and short grain production is forecast at 59 million. Projected all rice imports are raised 1.4 million cwt to 36 million as the robust import pace seen in 2019/20 marketing year is expected to moderate only slightly in 2020/21. Imports for 2019/20 are forecast at a record 36.7 million cwt as they are also raised this month on continued large Asian shipments. All rice exports for 2020/21 are lowered 1 million cwt to 97 million with all of the reduction for long grain on continued South American competition in Western Hemisphere markets. Projected ending stocks are raised to 44.3 million cwt, up 500,000 from last month and 44 percent higher than last year. The 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $12.70 per cwt, compared to last year’s $13.10.
The 2020/21 global outlook is for smaller supplies, lower consumption and trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 2.6 million tons to 681.7 million, primarily on reduced production forecasts for China, Thailand, and Viet Nam. China’s production is lowered 2 million tons to 147 million on record rainfall in the Yangtze River Valley during June and July causing severe flooding and reducing harvested area. Production for Thailand and Viet Nam is reduced on decreased irrigation availability with low reservoir and river levels. Despite these reductions, 2020/21 world production remains record-high at 500 million tons. Global consumption is reduced by 1.9 million tons to 496.5 million, still a record, primarily on reductions for China, Brazil, and Nigeria. World trade is decreased 600,000 tons to 44.3 million tons, mainly on export reductions for Thailand and China but remains well above last year’s 41.5 million. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 600,000 tons to 185.2 million, still a record, with China and India accounting for 63 and 21 percent of the total, respectively.
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