I voted!
Jun 27, 2024
WASHINGTON, DC – In 2024, voters representing half the world's population will vote in major elections. Mexico and India have already elected their leaders and there are or have been elections that could have consequences for USA Rice in Taiwan, the European Union, the United States, and more.
On June 4, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected to a historic third term in office. However, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party failed to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha and will need to rely on alliance partners to form the government, which will be a new experience for Prime Minister Modi, though his position on trade policy and rice subsidies is unlikely to change significantly. With the elections over, Modi’s government will likely maintain rice export restrictions through the summer to keep a grip on domestic prices before lifting the restrictions to prevent an oversupply situation. As of April, India had approximately 53 million tons of rice, almost four times more than their self-imposed minimum stocks of 13.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the country continues to flout World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments regarding its rice subsidies.
“When India lifts its export ban, it will undoubtedly distort global rice trade and harm the food security of other rice producers with a flood of subsidized product, once again demonstrating the need for other countries to hold India accountable for its trade-distorting measures,” said Ben Conner, with DTB AgriTrade, a USA Rice trade policy consultant. “Elections often lead to defensive trade postures, but the WTO and international standard-setting bodies play a fundamental role in helping policymakers understand their countries' global trade interests. However, India’s policymakers have been able to get away with flouting WTO rules on rice subsidies for too long.”
In the Western Hemisphere, on June 2, Mexico elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, a protégé of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Sheinbaum insists she will govern independently with different priorities than her predecessor, whose populist economic approach led to tensions with the U.S. even as Mexico stands to gain from supply chains shifting out of China. The United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) dispute panel that is reviewing AMLO’s restrictions on agricultural biotechnology (primarily for white corn) is working towards a final report in late 2024. Lawyers representing Mexico have apparently argued that it is uncertain whether biotechnology is safe, which will be a difficult position to defend given the extensive scientific research on the topic and jurisprudence under the WTO Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS).
“Mexico’s policies appear to be inconsistent with the core SPS disciplines in the USMCA, though equivalent disciplines also apply to more than 160 other countries through the WTO,” said Conner. “The election of a new leader in Mexico is an opportunity to resolve this trade irritant and put science and free trade back at the forefront of the U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade relationship.”
USA Rice is optimistic that changes in U.S. trade policy in the coming year could lead to more opportunities for engagement or re-engagement regarding free trade agreement discussions.