WASHINGTON, DC -- Total U.S. rice supplies for 2016/17 are lowered 2.2 million cwt from last month to 307.7 million, still the highest on record. Carryin is lowered 1.5 million cwt to 39.4 million due to 2015/16 revisions. The 2016/17 U.S. rice production forecast is lowered 700,000 cwt to a record 244.3 million based on the first survey-based yield forecast of the 2016/17 crop. At 7,659 pounds per acre, the 2016/17 yield is down 21 pounds from the previous projection. With no revisions to the use side of the 2016/17 rice balance sheet, the lower supply forecast reduces the 2016/17 U.S. ending stocks 2.2 million cwt to 54.7 million, still the highest since 1985/86. For 2015/16, total U.S. exports are raised 1.5 million cwt to 104.5 million, with long-grain accounting for all of the increase.
The only price revision for 2015/16 is a 20-cent reduction in the season-average farm price for
California medium- and short-grain rice to $18.00 per cwt. For 2016/17, the U.S. long-grain price is lowered 50 cents on both the high and low ends of the range to $9.50 to $10.50 per cwt. The California 2016/17 medium- and short-grain price is lowered $1.00 on both ends to $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt. The other states medium- and short-grain 2016/17 price is lowered 50 cents on both ends to $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt.
The 2016/17 global production forecast is lowered fractionally to 481.1 million tons (milled basis), still the highest on record. Crop forecasts for 2016/17 are lowered for Afghanistan and Bolivia but raised for Iran. For 2015/16, the Indonesia crop estimate is increased, while Vietnam is lowered. Global consumption for 2016/17 is lowered 1.8 million tons to 478.8 million, mostly due to a reduction for India. The 2016/17 global export forecast is raised slightly to 40.6 million tons, with stronger shipments from India offsetting weaker exports from Vietnam. The 2016/17 global ending stocks forecast is increased 6.5 million tons to 113.8 million, 2 percent above the previous year’s revised estimate. India accounts for most of the upward revision in the global ending stocks forecasts for both 2015/16 and 2016/17.
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