Optimistic Crop Outlook Thanks to Increased Production in Most Regions

WASHINGTON, DC – The USA Rice World Market Price Subcommittee held its final meeting of 2023 via Zoom yesterday, convening to discuss supply and demand, export sales, field yield estimates, and milling quality.  

Members from the mid-south generally agreed with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections of field yields, with some states suggesting final numbers could be slightly lower, while in California the final field yields could increase slightly. On export sales, the Subcommittee suggested USDA long grain projections were accurate and would stay strong, while medium grain exports are likely to increase more than what has been projected as the year progresses.  As for supply and demand, members agreed that domestic use projections from USDA were too high for both long grain and medium/short grain, which could lead to higher final carryout numbers at the end of the year.

Subcommittee members and USA Rice staff also met with teams from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Economic Research Service (ERS), and World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) departments.  World Market Price Subcommittee Chair Keith Glover provided feedback from Subcommittee members regarding NASS statistics, and reviewed the areas where members thought changes could be made.  These discussions are mutually beneficial to both the USDA and the rice industry in putting together a complete and accurate picture of the state of the industry throughout the year.

“Each fall we value the opportunity to discuss the new year’s crop and market opportunities with our USDA partners,” said Glover.  “This year we were pleased to share the optimistic outlook felt across the industry given the significant increase in production we have seen across the south and in California in particular.”

To round out the day, the Subcommittee heard from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) regarding the current situation in foreign markets.  FAS staff provided updates for export markets including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Mexico, Haiti, Colombia, Central America, the EU, and India, and reviewed the global rice situation for 2023-2024.