Jul 12, 2016
WASHINGTON, DC -- U.S. 2016/17 all rice supplies are raised 12 million cwt to 309.9 million on a production increase that is partially offset by lower beginning stocks. Long-grain production is raised 2 million cwt while combined medium- and short-grain production is raised 12 million cwt. The production increase reflects the 148,000 acre increase in planted area (mostly California medium- and short-grain rice) from NASS’ June Acreage report. Harvested area is forecast at 3.2 million acres, up 24 percent from the previous year. Beginning stocks are reduced 2 million cwt on an equivalent increase in 2015/16 exports. For 2016/17, all rice domestic and residual use and exports are each raised 3 million cwt to 138 million and 115 million, respectively. Ending stocks are unchanged for long-grain, but raised 6 million to 16.5 million for medium and short-grain. All rice ending stocks are now forecast at 56.9 million cwt, the largest since 1985/86. The all rice season-average farm price is lowered $0.40 per cwt at the midpoint to a projected range of $11.20 to $12.20, reflecting lower expected California prices.
Global rice supplies for 2016/17 are raised 600,000 tons primarily on the larger U.S. crop. Several mostly offsetting changes are made for 2015/16 and 2016/17 exports, imports, and domestic use. Global ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 400,000 tons to 107.3 million.