WASHINGTON, DC -- U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is forecast at 201 million cwt, down 23.1 million from the previous year, all on a large reduction in long grain acreage as indicated by the NASS Prospective Plantings survey issued March 31. The forecast 2017/18 yields are based on long-term historical trends and are higher for long grain but slightly lower for combined medium- and short-grain. Total 2017/18 rice supplies are forecast to decrease 7 percent from the previous year to 273.1 million cwt, primarily on the reduction in long grain.
U.S. 2017/18 total use is projected at 235 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year with both domestic and residual use and exports projected lower. Long-grain exports are projected at 76 million cwt, down 3 million from 2016/17 on reduced exportable supplies. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 34 million cwt, down 1 million on increased export competition from Australia and Egypt. All rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 38.1 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Long-grain stocks are projected at 20.7 million cwt, down 8 million from 2016/17, while combined medium- and short-grain are projected 2 million cwt lower at 14.6 million. The 2017/18 all rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.70 to $11.70/cwt, up $0.80 from the previous year’s revised midpoint.
Total 2017/18 global supplies are at 599.9 million tons, up 2.6 million from 2016/17, based on larger carry-in stocks. World 2017/18 rice production is projected at 481.3 million tons, down fractionally from last year’s record output. Total world rice consumption is projected at a record 480.1 million tons, up from the revised 2016/17 level of 478.7 million. Global exports are projected at 42.2 million tons, up 800,000 from 2016/17. Thailand and India are expected to be the leading rice exporters for 2017/18, both at 10 million tons. World 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 119.8 million tons, up marginally from 2016/17. China continues to hold the majority of global rice stocks as its growing production and large imports continue to outpace consumption.
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